Stock Price Trends

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

Capital One Financial Corporation is an American bank holding company specializing in credit cards, auto loans, banking, and savings accounts, headquartered in McLean, Virginia with operations primarily in the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.72% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $181.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 332.27% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.3144

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0794

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0794) – 1
= 37.40%

March 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3144 + 0.0010 × 1,205 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.6476)
= $104.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3144 + 0.0010 × 1,205 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.3299)
= $75.93

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3144 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(5.2528)
= $191.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3144 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.9351)
= $139.08

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.72% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $181.00 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 6, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -2.1188

b = 0.0040

s = 0.0367

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 332.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.82%

September 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1188 + 0.0040 × 1,752 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.9812)
= $145.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1188 + 0.0040 × 1,752 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.8344)
= $125.76

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1188 + 0.0040 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(5.2780)
= $195.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1188 + 0.0040 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(5.1312)
= $169.22

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 332.27% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.