Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.00% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $7.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.19% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.64 (8.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 10, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 2.7142
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0879
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0879) – 1
= 42.11%
February 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7142 + -0.0004 × 448 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(2.6904)
= $14.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7142 + -0.0004 × 448 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(2.3390)
= $10.37
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7142 + -0.0004 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(2.1348)
= $8.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7142 + -0.0004 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(1.7833)
= $5.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.00% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $7.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2024
End date: October 25, 2024
a = -0.0829
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0530
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0530) – 1
= 23.62%
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0829 + 0.0012 × 1,553 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(1.9473)
= $7.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0829 + 0.0012 × 1,553 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(1.7353)
= $5.67
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0829 + 0.0012 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(2.2546)
= $9.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0829 + 0.0012 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(2.0426)
= $7.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.19% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.64 (8.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.