Stock Price Trends

American Assets Trust Inc (AAT)

American Assets Trust, Inc. is a self-managed, vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust, or REIT, based in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.05% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $20.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.66% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 8.0969

b = -0.0028

s = 0.0222

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0222) – 1
= 9.27%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.3871)
= $29.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.2985)
= $27.07

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.0255)
= $20.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(2.9368)
= $18.86

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.05% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $20.14 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 11, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 2.7825

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0124

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0124) – 1
= 5.10%

March 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(3.0328)
= $20.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(2.9831)
= $19.75

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(3.0353)
= $20.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(2.9856)
= $19.80

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.66% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.