American Assets Trust Inc (AAT)
American Assets Trust, Inc. is a self-managed, vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust, or REIT, based in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.05% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $20.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.66% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 8.0969
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0222
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0222) – 1
= 9.27%
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.3871)
= $29.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.2985)
= $27.07
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.0255)
= $20.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0969 + -0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(2.9368)
= $18.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.05% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $20.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 2.7825
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0124) – 1
= 5.10%
March 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(3.0328)
= $20.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(2.9831)
= $19.75
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(3.0353)
= $20.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7825 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(2.9856)
= $19.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.66% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.