Stock Price Trends

American Assets Trust Inc (AAT)

American Assets Trust, Inc. is a self-managed, vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust, or REIT, based in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.69% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.94% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.8520

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0686

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.60%

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8520 + 0.0008 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.9262)
= $18.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8520 + 0.0008 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.6516)
= $14.18

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8520 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.4043)
= $30.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8520 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.1297)
= $22.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.69% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.84 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 0.4194

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0359

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.44%

April 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4194 + 0.0016 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(3.0566)
= $21.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4194 + 0.0016 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(2.9130)
= $18.41

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4194 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(3.4300)
= $30.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4194 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(3.2864)
= $26.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.94% per annum.
  • AAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.