Elme Communities (ELME)
Elme Communities owns and operates real estate assets in a unique position in the Washington metropolitan area.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.58% per annum.
- ELME price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $15.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.34 (2.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.64% per annum.
- ELME price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.17 (1.04%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELME price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 1.2802
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0467
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0467) – 1
= 20.56%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2802 + 0.0009 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(2.6026)
= $13.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2802 + 0.0009 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(2.4156)
= $11.20
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2802 + 0.0009 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(2.9654)
= $19.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2802 + 0.0009 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(2.7784)
= $16.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.58% per annum.
- ELME price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $15.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.34 (2.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 27, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.1653
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0222
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0222) – 1
= 9.30%
August 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1653 + -0.0007 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(2.9226)
= $18.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1653 + -0.0007 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(2.8338)
= $17.01
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1653 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(2.8606)
= $17.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1653 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(2.7717)
= $15.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.64% per annum.
- ELME price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.17 (1.04%).