Alexander & Baldwin Holdings Inc (ALEX)
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (A&B) is Hawaii's leading commercial real estate company and the largest neighborhood grocery shopping center owner in the state.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.74% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $19.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.12 (12.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.15% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.1227
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.06%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1227 + -0.0002 × 623 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(3.1204)
= $22.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1227 + -0.0002 × 623 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(2.8499)
= $17.29
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1227 + -0.0002 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(2.8842)
= $17.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1227 + -0.0002 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(2.6136)
= $13.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.74% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $19.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.12 (12.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.1619
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.80%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1619 + 0.0010 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(2.7991)
= $16.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1619 + 0.0010 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(2.6523)
= $14.19
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1619 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.0645)
= $21.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1619 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(2.9178)
= $18.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.15% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.