W P Carey Inc (WPC)
WP Carey is among the largest net-lease REITs with an enterprise value of approximately $ 18 billion and a diversified portfolio of operationally critical commercial real estate that includes 1,215 net-lease properties covering approximately 142 million square feet as of March 30. September 2020.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.20% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $56.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.72% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.20 (2.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: August 20, 2024
a = 4.5394
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0720
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0720) – 1
= 33.35%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5394 + -0.0003 × 834 + 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(4.4118)
= $82.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5394 + -0.0003 × 834 – 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(4.1239)
= $61.80
August 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5394 + -0.0003 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(4.1185)
= $61.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5394 + -0.0003 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(3.8306)
= $46.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.20% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $56.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: October 24, 2024
a = 3.1314
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.69%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1314 + 0.0005 × 1,542 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.0214)
= $55.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1314 + 0.0005 × 1,542 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.9019)
= $49.50
October 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1314 + 0.0005 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.1603)
= $64.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1314 + 0.0005 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.0408)
= $56.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.72% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.20 (2.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.