Stock Price Trends

W P Carey Inc (WPC)

WP Carey is among the largest net-lease REITs with an enterprise value of approximately $ 18 billion and a diversified portfolio of operationally critical commercial real estate that includes 1,215 net-lease properties covering approximately 142 million square feet as of March 30. September 2020.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.39% per annum.
  • WPC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $63.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.64 (4.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.57% per annum.
  • WPC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2021
End date: February 11, 2025

a = 4.3348

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0750

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0750) – 1
= 34.99%

December 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3348 + -0.0002 × 613 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(4.3558)
= $77.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3348 + -0.0002 × 613 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(4.0558)
= $57.73

February 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3348 + -0.0002 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(4.1112)
= $61.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3348 + -0.0002 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.8112)
= $45.20

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.39% per annum.
  • WPC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $63.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.64 (4.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 3.5295

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0445

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0445) – 1
= 19.49%

February 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5295 + 0.0003 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(4.0407)
= $56.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5295 + 0.0003 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(3.8627)
= $47.59

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5295 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(4.1658)
= $64.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5295 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(3.9877)
= $53.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.57% per annum.
  • WPC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.