Stock Price Trends

Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)

Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.73% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $7.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.07 (12.65%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.91% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.13 (1.71%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.4242

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0772

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.17%

April 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4242 + -0.0001 × 377 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.5500)
= $12.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4242 + -0.0001 × 377 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.2413)
= $9.41

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4242 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.4400)
= $11.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4242 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.1313)
= $8.43

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.73% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $7.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.07 (12.65%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.0912

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.43%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0912 + -0.0016 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(2.5734)
= $13.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0912 + -0.0016 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(2.3792)
= $10.80

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0912 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(2.2075)
= $9.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0912 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(2.0133)
= $7.49

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.91% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.13 (1.71%).