Stock Price Trends

Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)

Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.53% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $6.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.26 (15.69%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.20% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 2.4412

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0886

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0886) – 1
= 42.56%

April 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 353 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.5838)
= $13.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 353 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.2292)
= $9.29

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.4392)
= $11.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.0846)
= $8.04

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.53% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $6.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.26 (15.69%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.2276

b = -0.0029

s = 0.0550

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.59%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.5546)
= $12.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.3347)
= $10.33

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.0658)
= $7.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(1.8460)
= $6.33

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.20% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.