Stock Price Trends

Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)

Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.65% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (11.27%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.11% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.92%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 2.4223

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0762

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.62%

April 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 379 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.5468)
= $12.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 379 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.2421)
= $9.41

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.4405)
= $11.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.1358)
= $8.46

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.65% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (11.27%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.0283

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0471

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0471) – 1
= 20.71%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.5675)
= $13.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.3793)
= $10.80

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.2137)
= $9.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.0254)
= $7.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.11% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.92%).