Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.53% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $6.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.26 (15.69%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.20% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 2.4412
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0886
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0886) – 1
= 42.56%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 353 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.5838)
= $13.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 353 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.2292)
= $9.29
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.4392)
= $11.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4412 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.0846)
= $8.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.53% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $6.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.26 (15.69%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 7.2276
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0550
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.59%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.5546)
= $12.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.3347)
= $10.33
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.0658)
= $7.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2276 + -0.0029 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(1.8460)
= $6.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.20% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.