Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.65% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (11.27%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.11% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.92%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 2.4223
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0762
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.62%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 379 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.5468)
= $12.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 379 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.2421)
= $9.41
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.4405)
= $11.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4223 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.1358)
= $8.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.65% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (11.27%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.0283
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0471
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0471) – 1
= 20.71%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.5675)
= $13.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.3793)
= $10.80
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.2137)
= $9.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.0254)
= $7.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.11% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.92%).