Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.49% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $7.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: June 27, 2025
a = 5.4999
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0622
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0622) – 1
= 28.23%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.6260)
= $13.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.3773)
= $10.78
June 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.0116)
= $7.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(1.7630)
= $5.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.49% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $7.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: June 27, 2025
a = 0.9160
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0245
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0245) – 1
= 10.28%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(1.9600)
= $7.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(1.8622)
= $6.44
June 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(2.0087)
= $7.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(1.9108)
= $6.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.