Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $8.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.01 (0.07%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.96% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 2.4268
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0694
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0694) – 1
= 31.98%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4268 + -0.0001 × 405 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.5430)
= $12.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4268 + -0.0001 × 405 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.2655)
= $9.64
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4268 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.4642)
= $11.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4268 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.1867)
= $8.91
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $8.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.01 (0.07%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 4.4554
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0266
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.24%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4554 + -0.0012 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(2.5194)
= $12.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4554 + -0.0012 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(2.4129)
= $11.17
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4554 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(2.2800)
= $9.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4554 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(2.1735)
= $8.79
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.96% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.