Stock Price Trends

Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)

Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.49% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $7.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: June 27, 2025

a = 5.4999

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0622

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0622) – 1
= 28.23%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.6260)
= $13.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.3773)
= $10.78

June 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.0116)
= $7.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4999 + -0.0020 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(1.7630)
= $5.83

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.49% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $7.01 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: June 27, 2025

a = 0.9160

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0245

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0245) – 1
= 10.28%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(1.9600)
= $7.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(1.8622)
= $6.44

June 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(2.0087)
= $7.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9160 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(1.9108)
= $6.76

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
  • AHH price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.