Armada Hflr Pr (AHH)
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE: AHH) is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with four decades of experience in the development, construction, acquisition and management of high-end office, retail and institutional grade quality. and multi-family properties located primarily in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.96% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.31% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 2.4768
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0673
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0673) – 1
= 30.88%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4768 + -0.0001 × 512 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(2.5692)
= $13.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4768 + -0.0001 × 512 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(2.3000)
= $9.97
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4768 + -0.0001 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(2.4717)
= $11.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4768 + -0.0001 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(2.2026)
= $9.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.96% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.1970
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0605
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0605) – 1
= 27.37%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1970 + 0.0001 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(2.4376)
= $11.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1970 + 0.0001 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(2.1957)
= $8.99
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1970 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(2.5291)
= $12.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1970 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(2.2872)
= $9.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.31% per annum.
- AHH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.