Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc (EPRT)
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc., a real estate company, acquires, owns and manages single-tenant properties in the United States. The company is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.52% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $34.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.69% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EPRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.4037
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0403
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0403) – 1
= 17.47%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4037 + 0.0012 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(3.1046)
= $22.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4037 + 0.0012 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(2.9436)
= $18.98
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4037 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(3.5962)
= $36.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4037 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(3.4352)
= $31.04
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.52% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $34.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.2214
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0216
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0216) – 1
= 9.01%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2214 + -0.0004 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(3.5538)
= $34.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2214 + -0.0004 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(3.4675)
= $32.06
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2214 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(3.5279)
= $34.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2214 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(3.4417)
= $31.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.69% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.