Stock Price Trends

Cactus Inc (WHD)

Cactus, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and leases a variety of wellheads and pressure control equipment in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.66% per annum.
  • WHD price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $63.23 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.22 (1.97%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.18% per annum.
  • WHD price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WHD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 1, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024

a = 3.6896

b = 0.0001

s = 0.1289

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1289) – 1
= 67.43%

October 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y493)
= Exp(a + b × X493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6896 + 0.0001 × 715 + 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(4.0178)
= $55.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y493)
= Exp(a + b × X493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6896 + 0.0001 × 715 – 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(3.5024)
= $33.19

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6896 + 0.0001 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(4.1176)
= $61.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6896 + 0.0001 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(3.6022)
= $36.68

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.66% per annum.
  • WHD price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $63.23 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.22 (1.97%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 16, 2023
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 1.6864

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0488

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.56%

November 16, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6864 + 0.0013 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.7843)
= $44.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6864 + 0.0013 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.5890)
= $36.20

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6864 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.2337)
= $68.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6864 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.0384)
= $56.74

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.18% per annum.
  • WHD price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.