Stock Price Trends

Halliburton Company (HAL)

Halliburton Company is an American multinational corporation. One of the world's largest oil field service companies, it has operations in more than 70 countries.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.42% per annum.
  • HAL price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $31.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.85% per annum.
  • HAL price at the close of November 22, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.67 (5.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 24, 2023
End date: November 22, 2024

a = 4.5431

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0619

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0619) – 1
= 28.07%

July 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5431 + -0.0006 × 1,337 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.8300)
= $46.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5431 + -0.0006 × 1,337 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.5826)
= $35.97

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5431 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.5252)
= $33.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5431 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.2778)
= $26.52

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.42% per annum.
  • HAL price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $31.94 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024

a = 5.8649

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0430

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0430) – 1
= 18.76%

March 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0014 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.7557)
= $42.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0014 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.5838)
= $36.01

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.4103)
= $30.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.2384)
= $25.49

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.85% per annum.
  • HAL price at the close of November 22, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.67 (5.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.