Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.48% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $24.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.34 (21.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.40% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AESI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: September 13, 2024
a = 3.3608
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0513
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0513) – 1
= 22.75%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3608 + -0.0007 × 368 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.2065)
= $24.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3608 + -0.0007 × 368 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.0015)
= $20.12
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y381)
= Exp(a + b × X381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3608 + -0.0007 × 554 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.0767)
= $21.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y381)
= Exp(a + b × X381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3608 + -0.0007 × 554 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(2.8717)
= $17.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.48% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $24.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.34 (21.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 2.5987
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0490
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0490) – 1
= 21.67%
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5987 + 0.0008 × 462 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(3.0520)
= $21.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5987 + 0.0008 × 462 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(2.8559)
= $17.39
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5987 + 0.0008 × 680 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(3.2197)
= $25.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5987 + 0.0008 × 680 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(3.0235)
= $20.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.40% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.