Tidewater Inc (TDW)
Tidewater Inc., provides offshore marine support and transportation services to the offshore energy industry through the operation of a worldwide fleet of marine service vessels. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 124.06% per annum.
- TDW price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $74.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.54 (24.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.44% per annum.
- TDW price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.01 (3.88%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TDW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 6, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.8239
b = 0.0022
s = 0.1354
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 124.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1354) – 1
= 71.89%
July 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8239 + 0.0022 × 666 + 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(2.5668)
= $13.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8239 + 0.0022 × 666 – 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(2.0252)
= $7.58
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8239 + 0.0022 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(5.0313)
= $153.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8239 + 0.0022 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(4.4897)
= $89.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 124.06% per annum.
- TDW price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $74.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.54 (24.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: September 5, 2024
a = 7.7599
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.18%
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7599 + -0.0018 × 1,698 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.7785)
= $118.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7599 + -0.0018 × 1,698 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.5781)
= $97.33
September 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7599 + -0.0018 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.5516)
= $94.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7599 + -0.0018 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.3513)
= $77.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.44% per annum.
- TDW price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.01 (3.88%).