Stock Price Trends

Tidewater Inc (TDW)

Tidewater Inc., provides offshore marine support and transportation services to the offshore energy industry through the operation of a worldwide fleet of marine service vessels. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.23% per annum.
  • TDW price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $42.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 363.75% per annum.
  • TDW price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TDW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 9.2844

b = -0.0031

s = 0.0906

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0906) – 1
= 43.66%

May 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2844 + -0.0031 × 1,492 + 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(4.9056)
= $135.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2844 + -0.0031 × 1,492 – 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(4.5433)
= $94.00

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2844 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(3.8878)
= $48.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2844 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(3.5255)
= $33.97

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.23% per annum.
  • TDW price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $42.96 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025

a = -3.8818

b = 0.0042

s = 0.0207

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 363.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0207) – 1
= 8.61%

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8818 + 0.0042 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.7380)
= $42.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8818 + 0.0042 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.6554)
= $38.68

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8818 + 0.0042 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.8305)
= $46.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8818 + 0.0042 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.7478)
= $42.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 363.75% per annum.
  • TDW price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.