Liberty Oilfield Services Inc (LBRT)
Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. provides hydraulic fracturing and cabling services and related goods to onshore oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in North America. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.68% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $18.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.94% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LBRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 4.8776
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0526
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0526) – 1
= 23.44%
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8776 + -0.0011 × 1,591 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(3.2578)
= $25.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8776 + -0.0011 × 1,591 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(3.0472)
= $21.06
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8776 + -0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(3.0051)
= $20.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8776 + -0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(2.7946)
= $16.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.68% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $18.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 6.1242
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0476
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.99%
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1242 + -0.0018 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.1899)
= $24.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1242 + -0.0018 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.9994)
= $20.07
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1242 + -0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.9574)
= $19.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1242 + -0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.7669)
= $15.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.94% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.