Stock Price Trends

Bristow Group Inc (VTOL)

Bristow Group Inc. provides aviation services to independent, national and integrated offshore energy companies in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.63% per annum.
  • VTOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $37.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.12 (15.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.66% per annum.
  • VTOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VTOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 4, 2020
End date: May 7, 2024

a = 3.4299

b = -0.0001

s = 0.1165

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1165) – 1
= 59.36%

December 4, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4299 + -0.0001 × 379 + 2 × 0.1165)
= Exp(3.6245)
= $37.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4299 + -0.0001 × 379 – 2 × 0.1165)
= Exp(3.1585)
= $23.54

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4299 + -0.0001 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.1165)
= Exp(3.4979)
= $33.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4299 + -0.0001 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.1165)
= Exp(3.0319)
= $20.74

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.63% per annum.
  • VTOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $37.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.12 (15.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.2511

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0936

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0936) – 1
= 45.39%

March 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2511 + 0.0007 × 1,204 + 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(3.3203)
= $27.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2511 + 0.0007 × 1,204 – 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(2.9461)
= $19.03

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2511 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(3.7760)
= $43.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2511 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(3.4018)
= $30.02

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.66% per annum.
  • VTOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.