Stock Price Trends

Viad Corp (VVI)

Viad Corp is an experiential services company in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, the United Arab Emirates, and Iceland. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.11% per annum.
  • VVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $42.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.28% per annum.
  • VVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.70 (12.28%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VVI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: May 22, 2024

a = 1.3026

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0897

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0897) – 1
= 43.15%

March 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3026 + 0.0014 × 1,197 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(3.2049)
= $24.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3026 + 0.0014 × 1,197 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(2.8462)
= $17.22

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3026 + 0.0014 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(3.8498)
= $46.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3026 + 0.0014 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(3.4911)
= $32.82

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.11% per annum.
  • VVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $42.99 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 14, 2023
End date: October 18, 2024

a = 3.5313

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0500

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.12%

November 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5313 + 0.0000 × 1,455 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(3.6424)
= $38.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5313 + 0.0000 × 1,455 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(3.4425)
= $31.27

October 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5313 + 0.0000 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(3.6449)
= $38.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5313 + 0.0000 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(3.4451)
= $31.35

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.28% per annum.
  • VVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.70 (12.28%).