Science Applications International Corporation Common Stock (SAIC)
Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering and business information technology (IT) services primarily in the United States. The company is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.16% per annum.
- SAIC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $119.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.38 (9.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 100.06% per annum.
- SAIC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.53 (18.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SAIC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2021
End date: May 31, 2024
a = 3.9477
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0539
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0539) – 1
= 24.05%
November 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y501)
= Exp(a + b × X501 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9477 + 0.0006 × 727 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.4703)
= $87.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y501)
= Exp(a + b × X501 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9477 + 0.0006 × 727 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.2548)
= $70.44
May 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9477 + 0.0006 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.9993)
= $148.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9477 + 0.0006 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.7837)
= $119.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.16% per annum.
- SAIC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $119.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.38 (9.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024
a = 1.5578
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0216
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 100.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0216) – 1
= 9.01%
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5578 + 0.0019 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(4.7509)
= $115.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5578 + 0.0019 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(4.6647)
= $106.13
November 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5578 + 0.0019 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(5.0587)
= $157.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5578 + 0.0019 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(4.9724)
= $144.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 100.06% per annum.
- SAIC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.53 (18.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.