Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)
Amentum Holdings, Inc. provides engineering and technology solutions to address challenges in science, security, and sustainability.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 536.34% per annum.
- AMTM price at the close of February 3, 2025 was $20.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.26 (13.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.96% per annum.
- AMTM price at the close of February 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMTM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 17, 2024
End date: January 22, 2025
a = 2.5607
b = 0.0051
s = 0.0331
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 536.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.17%
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y59)
= Exp(a + b × X59 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 84 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5607 + 0.0051 × 84 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.0528)
= $21.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y59)
= Exp(a + b × X59 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 84 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5607 + 0.0051 × 84 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(2.9203)
= $18.55
January 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y81)
= Exp(a + b × X81 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5607 + 0.0051 × 120 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.2354)
= $25.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y81)
= Exp(a + b × X81 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5607 + 0.0051 × 120 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.1028)
= $22.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 536.34% per annum.
- AMTM price at the close of February 3, 2025 was $20.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.26 (13.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 13, 2025
End date: February 3, 2025
a = 4.0719
b = -0.0082
s = 0.0359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0082) – 1
= -94.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.46%
January 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y75)
= Exp(a + b × X75 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + -0.0082 × 111 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(3.2351)
= $25.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y75)
= Exp(a + b × X75 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + -0.0082 × 111 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(3.0914)
= $22.01
February 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y89)
= Exp(a + b × X89 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + -0.0082 × 132 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(3.0632)
= $21.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y89)
= Exp(a + b × X89 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + -0.0082 × 132 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(2.9195)
= $18.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.96% per annum.
- AMTM price at the close of February 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.