Copart Inc (CPRT)
Copart, Inc. or simply Copart is a global provider of online vehicle auction and remarketing services to automotive resellers such as insurance, rental car, fleet and finance companies in 11 countries: the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, Ireland, Brazil, Spain, Dubai, Bahrain, Oman and Finland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.60% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $56.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.80 (7.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.46% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.80 (7.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 2.3275
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0625
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0625) – 1
= 28.41%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 884 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3275 + 0.0010 × 884 + 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(3.3790)
= $29.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 884 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3275 + 0.0010 × 884 – 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(3.1289)
= $22.85
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3275 + 0.0010 × 1,647 + 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(4.1786)
= $65.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3275 + 0.0010 × 1,647 – 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(3.9286)
= $50.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.60% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $56.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.80 (7.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: October 7, 2024
a = 4.6948
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0258
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0258) – 1
= 10.86%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6948 + -0.0004 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(4.0792)
= $59.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6948 + -0.0004 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(3.9761)
= $53.31
October 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6948 + -0.0004 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(3.9834)
= $53.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6948 + -0.0004 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(3.8803)
= $48.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.46% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.80 (7.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.