Stock Price Trends

RB Global Inc. (RBA)

Ritchie Bros. The company is headquartered in Burnaby, Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.70% per annum.
  • RBA price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $78.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.35% per annum.
  • RBA price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RBA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: October 15, 2024

a = 2.9450

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0429

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0429) – 1
= 18.71%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0008 × 1,240 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.0428)
= $56.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0008 × 1,240 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(3.8713)
= $48.00

October 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.5203)
= $91.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.3488)
= $77.38

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.70% per annum.
  • RBA price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $78.71 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 7.1339

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0141

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0141) – 1
= 5.81%

August 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1339 + -0.0015 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.4879)
= $88.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1339 + -0.0015 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.4314)
= $84.05

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1339 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.4064)
= $81.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1339 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.3499)
= $77.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.35% per annum.
  • RBA price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.