Stock Price Trends

Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)

Leidos, formerly known as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), is an American defense, aviation, information technology (Lockheed Martin IS&GS), and biomedical research company headquartered in Reston, Virginia, that provides scientific, engineering, systems integration, and technical services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 70.58% per annum.
  • LDOS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $158.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.25 (3.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 167.20% per annum.
  • LDOS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.49 (10.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LDOS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 2.5084

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0415

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 70.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0415) – 1
= 18.06%

May 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5084 + 0.0015 × 1,259 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.4335)
= $84.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5084 + 0.0015 × 1,259 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.2675)
= $71.34

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5084 + 0.0015 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(5.2427)
= $189.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5084 + 0.0015 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(5.0766)
= $160.23

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 70.58% per annum.
  • LDOS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $158.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.25 (3.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024

a = 0.3269

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0316

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 167.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.47%

July 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3269 + 0.0027 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.0054)
= $149.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3269 + 0.0027 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.8790)
= $131.50

November 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3269 + 0.0027 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.2908)
= $198.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3269 + 0.0027 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.1644)
= $174.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 167.20% per annum.
  • LDOS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.49 (10.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.