Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
Vornado Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust formed in Maryland, with its primary office in New York City. The company invests in office buildings and street retail in Manhattan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 335.20% per annum.
- VNO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $41.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.09 (7.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.02% per annum.
- VNO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VNO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 11, 2024
a = -3.5061
b = 0.0040
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 335.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.54%
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5061 + 0.0040 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.1854)
= $24.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5061 + 0.0040 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.0583)
= $21.29
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5061 + 0.0040 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.8824)
= $48.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5061 + 0.0040 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.7554)
= $42.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 335.20% per annum.
- VNO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $41.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.09 (7.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.0907
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.02%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0907 + 0.0020 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(3.7153)
= $41.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0907 + 0.0020 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(3.5841)
= $36.02
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0907 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(3.8446)
= $46.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0907 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(3.7134)
= $40.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.02% per annum.
- VNO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.