Stock Price Trends

Veris Residential Inc (VRE)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.26% per annum.
  • VRE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $16.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.03 (0.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.56% per annum.
  • VRE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: December 17, 2024

a = 1.8367

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0464

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.26%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.39%

October 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8367 + 0.0006 × 1,302 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(2.7043)
= $14.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8367 + 0.0006 × 1,302 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(2.5187)
= $12.41

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8367 + 0.0006 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(2.9537)
= $19.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8367 + 0.0006 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(2.7681)
= $15.93

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.26% per annum.
  • VRE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $16.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.03 (0.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025

a = 3.6711

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0350

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.04%

August 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6711 + -0.0005 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(2.9428)
= $18.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6711 + -0.0005 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(2.8027)
= $16.49

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6711 + -0.0005 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(2.8382)
= $17.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6711 + -0.0005 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(2.6981)
= $14.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.56% per annum.
  • VRE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.