COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.85% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $30.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (4.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.08% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 0.1477
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0272
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0272) – 1
= 11.49%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1477 + 0.0018 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(3.1393)
= $23.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1477 + 0.0018 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(3.0306)
= $20.71
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1477 + 0.0018 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(3.5518)
= $34.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1477 + 0.0018 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(3.4431)
= $31.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.85% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $30.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (4.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.3409
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0222
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0222) – 1
= 9.31%
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3409 + -0.0016 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.5334)
= $34.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3409 + -0.0016 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.4444)
= $31.32
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3409 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.4777)
= $32.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3409 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0222)
= Exp(3.3887)
= $29.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.08% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.