Stock Price Trends

Eerly Govt Ppty Inc (DEA)

Easterly Government Properties, Inc. (NYSE: DEA) is headquartered in Washington, DC and focuses primarily on the acquisition, development, and management of Class A commercial properties that are leased to the US government.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.35% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $10.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.56% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DEA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 10, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.7405

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0349

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.97%

September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7405 + -0.0013 × 1,623 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.6591)
= $14.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7405 + -0.0013 × 1,623 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.5196)
= $12.42

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7405 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.3914)
= $10.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7405 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.2519)
= $9.51

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.35% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $10.60 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 3.5032

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0243

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.19%

December 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5032 + -0.0006 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.4732)
= $11.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5032 + -0.0006 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.3761)
= $10.76

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5032 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.4006)
= $11.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5032 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.3036)
= $10.01

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.56% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.