Stock Price Trends

Eerly Govt Ppty Inc (DEA)

Easterly Government Properties, Inc. (NYSE: DEA) is headquartered in Washington, DC and focuses primarily on the acquisition, development, and management of Class A commercial properties that are leased to the US government.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.85% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $8.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.97 (10.60%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.30% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DEA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 10, 2024
End date: April 9, 2025

a = 4.7428

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0357

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.35%

September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0013 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(2.6623)
= $14.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0013 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(2.5195)
= $12.42

April 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0013 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(2.3780)
= $10.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0013 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(2.2352)
= $9.35

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.85% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $8.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.97 (10.60%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 24, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 22.3869

b = -0.0112

s = 0.0478

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0112) – 1
= -98.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.06%

March 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(22.3869 + -0.0112 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(2.4901)
= $12.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(22.3869 + -0.0112 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(2.2990)
= $9.96

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(22.3869 + -0.0112 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(2.1443)
= $8.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(22.3869 + -0.0112 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(1.9532)
= $7.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.30% per annum.
  • DEA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.