Highwoods Properties Inc (HIW)
Highwoods Properties, Inc., based in Raleigh, is a publicly traded (NYSE: HIW) real estate investment trust (?
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.85% per annum.
- HIW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $31.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.06 (0.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.82% per annum.
- HIW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HIW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 0.4008
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0520
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.12%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4008 + 0.0017 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(2.9333)
= $18.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4008 + 0.0017 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(2.7253)
= $15.26
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4008 + 0.0017 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(3.6467)
= $38.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4008 + 0.0017 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(3.4386)
= $31.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.85% per annum.
- HIW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $31.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.06 (0.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 10.7508
b = -0.0040
s = 0.0148
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -76.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0148) – 1
= 6.10%
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7508 + -0.0040 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(3.6035)
= $36.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7508 + -0.0040 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(3.5443)
= $34.62
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7508 + -0.0040 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(3.4674)
= $32.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7508 + -0.0040 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(3.4081)
= $30.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.82% per annum.
- HIW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.