Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN)
Brandywine Realty Trust (NYSE: BDN) is one of the largest publicly traded, full-service integrated real estate companies in the United States with a primary focus on the Philadelphia, Austin and Washington, DC markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.56% per annum.
- BDN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $4.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.19 (4.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.74% per annum.
- BDN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 16, 2023
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 0.3824
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0894
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0894) – 1
= 42.98%
March 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y744)
= Exp(a + b × X744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3824 + 0.0007 × 1,079 + 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(1.3495)
= $3.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y744)
= Exp(a + b × X744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3824 + 0.0007 × 1,079 – 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(0.9920)
= $2.70
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3824 + 0.0007 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(1.8742)
= $6.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3824 + 0.0007 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(1.5166)
= $4.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.56% per annum.
- BDN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $4.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.19 (4.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 4.7580
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0313
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0313) – 1
= 13.34%
November 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7580 + -0.0018 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(1.8001)
= $6.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7580 + -0.0018 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(1.6749)
= $5.34
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7580 + -0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(1.5761)
= $4.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7580 + -0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(1.4509)
= $4.27
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.74% per annum.
- BDN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.