Stock Price Trends

UDR Inc (UDR)

UDR Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments. The company is organized in Maryland with its headquarters in Highlands Ranch, Colorado.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.75% per annum.
  • UDR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $44.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.97% per annum.
  • UDR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UDR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.1789

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0362

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.59%

October 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1789 + 0.0009 × 1,429 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(3.5336)
= $34.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1789 + 0.0009 × 1,429 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(3.3887)
= $29.63

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1789 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(3.8898)
= $48.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1789 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(3.7449)
= $42.31

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.75% per annum.
  • UDR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $44.34 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 10, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.9479

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0194

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0194) – 1
= 8.05%

September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9479 + -0.0006 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.8551)
= $47.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9479 + -0.0006 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.7777)
= $43.71

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9479 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.8094)
= $45.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9479 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.7319)
= $41.76

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.97% per annum.
  • UDR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.