Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS)
Essex Property Trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments, primarily on the West Coast of the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.25% per annum.
- ESS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $301.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.16% per annum.
- ESS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ESS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.8668
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0375
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.18%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8668 + 0.0010 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.3747)
= $215.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8668 + 0.0010 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.2247)
= $185.81
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8668 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.8093)
= $333.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8668 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.6594)
= $286.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.25% per annum.
- ESS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $301.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.9520
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0254
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -5.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0254) – 1
= 10.68%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0001 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.7506)
= $314.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0001 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.6491)
= $284.05
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.7378)
= $310.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.6364)
= $280.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.16% per annum.
- ESS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.