Centerspace (CSR)
IRET is a real estate company focused on the ownership, management, acquisition, remodeling and development of apartment communities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.65% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $73.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (0.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.19% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 18, 2023
End date: September 27, 2024
a = 1.9893
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0440
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0440) – 1
= 19.24%
October 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9893 + 0.0013 × 1,428 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(3.9563)
= $52.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9893 + 0.0013 × 1,428 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(3.7803)
= $43.83
September 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9893 + 0.0013 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(4.4103)
= $82.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9893 + 0.0013 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(4.2343)
= $69.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.65% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $73.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (0.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.4553
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0281
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0281) – 1
= 11.88%
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4553 + 0.0005 × 1,623 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.2546)
= $70.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4553 + 0.0005 × 1,623 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.1423)
= $62.95
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4553 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.3476)
= $77.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4553 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.2353)
= $69.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.19% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.