Stock Price Trends

Nexpoint Residential Trust Inc (NXRT)

NexPoint Residential Trust is a publicly traded REIT, with its shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol NXRT, primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with value-added potential in large cities and suburbs. Submarkets in large cities, mainly in the southeastern and southwestern United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 133.02% per annum.
  • NXRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $46.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.97 (7.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.75% per annum.
  • NXRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: September 25, 2024

a = -0.2475

b = 0.0023

s = 0.0353

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 133.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0353) – 1
= 15.18%

January 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2475 + 0.0023 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(3.3738)
= $29.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2475 + 0.0023 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(3.2325)
= $25.34

September 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2475 + 0.0023 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(3.9277)
= $50.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2475 + 0.0023 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(3.7864)
= $44.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 133.02% per annum.
  • NXRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $46.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.97 (7.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.6078

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0323

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.81%

July 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6078 + 0.0001 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.8446)
= $46.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6078 + 0.0001 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.7153)
= $41.07

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6078 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.8567)
= $47.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6078 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.7274)
= $41.57

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.75% per annum.
  • NXRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.