Nexpoint Residential Trust Inc (NXRT)
NexPoint Residential Trust is a publicly traded REIT, with its shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol NXRT, primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with value-added potential in large cities and suburbs. Submarkets in large cities, mainly in the southeastern and southwestern United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.85% per annum.
- NXRT price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $40.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.04 (11.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.64% per annum.
- NXRT price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: December 18, 2024
a = 1.6513
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0734
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0734) – 1
= 34.15%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6513 + 0.0013 × 1,267 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(3.4048)
= $30.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6513 + 0.0013 × 1,267 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(3.1110)
= $22.44
December 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6513 + 0.0013 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(3.9804)
= $53.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6513 + 0.0013 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(3.6867)
= $39.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.85% per annum.
- NXRT price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $40.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.04 (11.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 26, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 4.6365
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0442
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0442) – 1
= 19.33%
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6365 + -0.0005 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.8867)
= $48.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6365 + -0.0005 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.7100)
= $40.85
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6365 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.7543)
= $42.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6365 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.5776)
= $35.79
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.64% per annum.
- NXRT price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.