Camden Property Trust (CPT)
Camden Property Trust, an S&P 400 company, is a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, remodeling, acquisition, and construction of multi-family apartment communities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.73% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $121.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.69% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.9820
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0376
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.24%
October 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9820 + 0.0010 × 1,435 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.5107)
= $90.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9820 + 0.0010 × 1,435 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.3602)
= $78.27
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9820 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.9067)
= $135.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9820 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.7562)
= $116.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.73% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $121.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.7478
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.11%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7478 + -0.0005 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.8551)
= $128.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7478 + -0.0005 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.7865)
= $119.88
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7478 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.8082)
= $122.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7478 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.7395)
= $114.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.69% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.