AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.36% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $229.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.73% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 24, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.4212
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0217
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0217) – 1
= 9.09%
January 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4212 + 0.0011 × 1,526 + 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.1699)
= $175.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4212 + 0.0011 × 1,526 – 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.0829)
= $161.25
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4212 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.5051)
= $245.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4212 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.4182)
= $225.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.36% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $229.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.1931
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0190
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1
= 7.89%
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1931 + 0.0001 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.4517)
= $233.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1931 + 0.0001 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.3758)
= $216.11
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1931 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.4622)
= $235.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1931 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.3863)
= $218.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.73% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.