AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.09% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $214.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.20 (8.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.83% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 3.9522
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0332
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0332) – 1
= 14.22%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9522 + 0.0009 × 1,268 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.1146)
= $166.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9522 + 0.0009 × 1,268 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.9816)
= $145.71
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9522 + 0.0009 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.5061)
= $246.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9522 + 0.0009 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.3732)
= $215.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.09% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $214.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.20 (8.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.7748
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0219
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0219) – 1
= 9.16%
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7748 + -0.0002 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.4591)
= $234.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7748 + -0.0002 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.3714)
= $215.17
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7748 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.4111)
= $223.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7748 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.3234)
= $205.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.83% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.