NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)
NetScout Systems, Inc. provides service security and cybersecurity solutions to protect digital business services from disruption in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.92% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $21.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.64 (3.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.97% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NTCT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2022
End date: September 18, 2024
a = 4.3705
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.63%
May 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0008 × 901 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.7861)
= $44.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0008 × 901 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.4740)
= $32.26
September 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0008 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.0777)
= $21.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0008 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(2.7655)
= $15.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.92% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $21.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.64 (3.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.9036
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0341
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.62%
June 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9036 + 0.0012 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(2.9629)
= $19.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9036 + 0.0012 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(2.8264)
= $16.89
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9036 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.1633)
= $23.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9036 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.0269)
= $20.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.97% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.