Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Harmonic Inc. provides global video delivery software, products, system solutions and services. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.24% per annum.
- HLIT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $12.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.99% per annum.
- HLIT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HLIT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2022
End date: July 29, 2024
a = 3.1219
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1416
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1416) – 1
= 76.18%
September 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1219 + -0.0004 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(2.9660)
= $19.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1219 + -0.0004 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(2.3997)
= $11.02
July 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1219 + -0.0004 × 1,713 + 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(2.6840)
= $14.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1219 + -0.0004 × 1,713 – 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(2.1177)
= $8.31
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.24% per annum.
- HLIT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $12.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 1.3350
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0875
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0875) – 1
= 41.89%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3350 + 0.0007 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.4814)
= $11.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3350 + 0.0007 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.1316)
= $8.43
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3350 + 0.0007 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.8062)
= $16.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3350 + 0.0007 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.4563)
= $11.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.99% per annum.
- HLIT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.