Stock Price Trends

ViaSat Inc (VSAT)

Viasat, Inc. provides worldwide broadband and communications products and services. The company is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 95.28% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $6.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 100.00% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VSAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 17.3472

b = -0.0084

s = 0.0756

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0084) – 1
= -95.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0756) – 1
= 35.31%

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3472 + -0.0084 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(3.2064)
= $24.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3472 + -0.0084 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.9040)
= $18.25

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3472 + -0.0084 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.2279)
= $9.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3472 + -0.0084 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(1.9255)
= $6.86

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 95.28% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $6.93 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 52.0290

b = -0.0275

s = 0.0331

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0275) – 1
= -100.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.17%

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(52.0290 + -0.0275 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(2.4104)
= $11.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(52.0290 + -0.0275 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(2.2779)
= $9.76

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(52.0290 + -0.0275 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(1.9712)
= $7.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(52.0290 + -0.0275 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(1.8387)
= $6.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 100.00% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.