Stock Price Trends

ViaSat Inc (VSAT)

Viasat, Inc. provides worldwide broadband and communications products and services. The company is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.23% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $10.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.60% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VSAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 5, 2023
End date: March 21, 2025

a = 5.7388

b = -0.0020

s = 0.1760

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1760) – 1
= 102.20%

January 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7388 + -0.0020 × 1,009 + 2 × 0.1760)
= Exp(4.1060)
= $60.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7388 + -0.0020 × 1,009 – 2 × 0.1760)
= Exp(3.4019)
= $30.02

March 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7388 + -0.0020 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.1760)
= Exp(2.5204)
= $12.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7388 + -0.0020 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.1760)
= Exp(1.8163)
= $6.15

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.23% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $10.42 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 8, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 0.0100

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0948

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0948) – 1
= 46.11%

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0100 + 0.0013 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(2.3251)
= $10.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0100 + 0.0013 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(1.9458)
= $7.00

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0100 + 0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(2.5058)
= $12.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0100 + 0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(2.1265)
= $8.39

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.60% per annum.
  • VSAT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.