Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Ciena Corporation provides hardware, software, and network services that support the transport, routing, switching, aggregation, service delivery, and management of video, data, and voice traffic on communications networks worldwide. The company is headquartered in Hanover, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 175.96% per annum.
- CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $66.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.46% per annum.
- CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CIEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -0.8282
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0471
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 175.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0471) – 1
= 20.72%
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8282 + 0.0028 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(3.8825)
= $48.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8282 + 0.0028 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(3.6942)
= $40.21
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8282 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(4.3441)
= $77.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8282 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(4.1558)
= $63.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 175.96% per annum.
- CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $66.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.7034
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.30%
October 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7034 + 0.0008 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.2477)
= $69.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7034 + 0.0008 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.1141)
= $61.20
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7034 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.2885)
= $72.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7034 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.1548)
= $63.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.46% per annum.
- CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.