Stock Price Trends

Extreme Networks Inc (EXTR)

Extreme Networks, Inc. provides software-driven networking solutions for businesses, data centers, and service provider customers globally. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.02% per annum.
  • EXTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $15.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.66% per annum.
  • EXTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.8707

b = -0.0007

s = 0.2170

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2170) – 1
= 138.24%

October 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8707 + -0.0007 × 1,072 + 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(3.5363)
= $34.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8707 + -0.0007 × 1,072 – 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(2.6682)
= $14.41

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8707 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(2.9958)
= $20.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8707 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(2.1277)
= $8.40

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.02% per annum.
  • EXTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $15.43 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -0.4347

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0473

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 90.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.84%

March 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4347 + 0.0018 × 1,587 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(2.4658)
= $11.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4347 + 0.0018 × 1,587 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(2.2765)
= $9.74

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4347 + 0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(2.8883)
= $17.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4347 + 0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(2.6990)
= $14.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.66% per annum.
  • EXTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.