Stock Price Trends

Arista Networks (ANET)

Arista Networks (formerly Arastra) is an American computer networking company headquartered in Santa Clara, California. The company designs and sells multilayer network switches to deliver software-defined networking (SDN) solutions for large datacenter, cloud computing, high-performance computing, and high-frequency trading environments.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.84% per annum.
  • ANET price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $78.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $27.73 (26.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.53% per annum.
  • ANET price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 18, 2022
End date: February 18, 2025

a = 1.8640

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0804

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0804) – 1
= 37.92%

May 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8640 + 0.0016 × 776 + 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(3.2843)
= $26.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8640 + 0.0016 × 776 – 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(2.9628)
= $19.35

February 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8640 + 0.0016 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(4.9188)
= $136.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8640 + 0.0016 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(4.5973)
= $99.22

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.84% per annum.
  • ANET price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $78.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $27.73 (26.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 16.6693

b = -0.0068

s = 0.0635

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0068) – 1
= -91.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0635) – 1
= 28.91%

January 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6693 + -0.0068 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(4.9686)
= $143.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6693 + -0.0068 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(4.7146)
= $111.57

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6693 + -0.0068 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(4.4546)
= $86.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6693 + -0.0068 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(4.2007)
= $66.73

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.53% per annum.
  • ANET price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.