MarketAxess Holdings Inc (MKTX)
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MarketAxess) is an international financial technology company that operates an electronic trading platform for the institutional credit markets, and also provides market data and post-trade services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 182.25% per annum.
- MKTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $267.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.78 (8.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.42% per annum.
- MKTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MKTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 29, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 0.5377
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0266
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 182.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.24%
May 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5377 + 0.0028 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.2872)
= $197.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5377 + 0.0028 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.1807)
= $177.81
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5377 + 0.0028 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.7392)
= $310.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5377 + 0.0028 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.6327)
= $279.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 182.25% per annum.
- MKTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $267.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.78 (8.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 11.3515
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0173
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0173) – 1
= 7.15%
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3515 + -0.0032 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(5.7263)
= $306.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3515 + -0.0032 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(5.6573)
= $286.36
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3515 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(5.6189)
= $275.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3515 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(5.5499)
= $257.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.42% per annum.
- MKTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.