Moodys Corporation (MCO)
Moody's Corporation, often referred to as Moody's, is an American business and financial services company. It is the holding company for Moody's Investors Service (MIS), an American credit rating agency, and Moody's Analytics (MA), an American provider of financial analysis software and services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.60% per annum.
- MCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $496.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.13% per annum.
- MCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 4.8052
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0516
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.94%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y665)
= Exp(a + b × X665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0008 × 962 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.6521)
= $284.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y665)
= Exp(a + b × X665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0008 × 962 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.4456)
= $231.74
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(6.3200)
= $555.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(6.1135)
= $451.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.60% per annum.
- MCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $496.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 6.0666
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0238
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0238) – 1
= 9.97%
August 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0666 + 0.0001 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(6.2098)
= $497.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0666 + 0.0001 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(6.1148)
= $452.51
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0666 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(6.2194)
= $502.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0666 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(6.1244)
= $456.89
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.13% per annum.
- MCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.