Stock Price Trends

Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc (DFIN)

Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. is a global risk and compliance solutions company. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.75% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $41.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.03 (17.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.92% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.11 (10.87%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DFIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 26, 2021
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 3.1892

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1415

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1415) – 1
= 76.12%

February 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1892 + 0.0006 × 326 + 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(3.6553)
= $38.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1892 + 0.0006 × 326 – 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(3.0893)
= $21.96

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1892 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(4.4962)
= $89.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1892 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(3.9302)
= $50.92

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.75% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $41.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.03 (17.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 5, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 4.5613

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0946

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0946) – 1
= 45.98%

December 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y923)
= Exp(a + b × X923 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5613 + -0.0003 × 1,338 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.3673)
= $78.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y923)
= Exp(a + b × X923 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5613 + -0.0003 × 1,338 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(3.9890)
= $54.00

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5613 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.2285)
= $68.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5613 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(3.8502)
= $47.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.92% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.11 (10.87%).