Stock Price Trends

Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc (DFIN)

Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. is a global risk and compliance solutions company. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.05% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $60.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.16% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.09 (1.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DFIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 26, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.0437

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1260

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1260) – 1
= 65.51%

February 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0437 + 0.0006 × 463 + 2 × 0.1260)
= Exp(3.5892)
= $36.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0437 + 0.0006 × 463 – 2 × 0.1260)
= Exp(3.0854)
= $21.88

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0437 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1260)
= Exp(4.4536)
= $85.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0437 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1260)
= Exp(3.9498)
= $51.92

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.05% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $60.06 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.7041

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0857

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0857) – 1
= 40.90%

February 23, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7041 + 0.0009 × 825 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(3.5897)
= $36.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7041 + 0.0009 × 825 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(3.2468)
= $25.71

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7041 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(4.4562)
= $86.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7041 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(4.1133)
= $61.15

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.16% per annum.
  • DFIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.09 (1.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.