Stock Price Trends

Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE)

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is an American Fortune 500 company formed in 2000 that operates global exchanges, clearing houses and provides mortgage technology, data and listing services. The company owns exchanges for financial and commodity markets, and operates regulated exchanges and marketplaces.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.53% per annum.
  • ICE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $157.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.79% per annum.
  • ICE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ICE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.7667

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0507

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0507) – 1
= 22.47%

September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7667 + 0.0007 × 1,030 + 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(4.5982)
= $99.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7667 + 0.0007 × 1,030 – 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(4.3955)
= $81.09

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7667 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(5.1625)
= $174.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7667 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(4.9598)
= $142.57

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.53% per annum.
  • ICE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $157.93 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.2344

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0404

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.52%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2344 + 0.0010 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.7622)
= $117.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2344 + 0.0010 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.6008)
= $99.56

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2344 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.2012)
= $181.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2344 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.0397)
= $154.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.79% per annum.
  • ICE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.