Morningstar Inc (MORN)
Morningstar, Inc. offers independent investment research services in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.10% per annum.
- MORN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $334.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.02 (11.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.39% per annum.
- MORN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MORN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 3.5614
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0497
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0497) – 1
= 21.98%
March 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5614 + 0.0014 × 1,203 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.2932)
= $198.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5614 + 0.0014 × 1,203 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.0945)
= $163.12
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5614 + 0.0014 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.8550)
= $348.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5614 + 0.0014 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.6563)
= $286.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.10% per annum.
- MORN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $334.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.02 (11.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.7935
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0329
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0329) – 1
= 14.08%
November 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7935 + 0.0006 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.6575)
= $286.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7935 + 0.0006 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.5257)
= $251.06
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7935 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.8700)
= $354.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7935 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.7382)
= $310.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.39% per annum.
- MORN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.