Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc (IRWD)
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a healthcare company, focuses on the development and commercialization of gastrointestinal (GI) products. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.65% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $3.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.08 (2.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.14% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: December 19, 2024
a = 8.1008
b = -0.0039
s = 0.1403
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -75.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1403) – 1
= 75.26%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1008 + -0.0039 × 1,415 + 2 × 0.1403)
= Exp(2.9054)
= $18.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1008 + -0.0039 × 1,415 – 2 × 0.1403)
= Exp(2.3443)
= $10.43
December 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1008 + -0.0039 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.1403)
= Exp(1.4658)
= $4.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1008 + -0.0039 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.1403)
= Exp(0.9047)
= $2.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.65% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $3.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.08 (2.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.4145
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0921
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0921) – 1
= 44.52%
August 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4145 + -0.0011 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(1.7062)
= $5.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4145 + -0.0011 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(1.3379)
= $3.81
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4145 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(1.5094)
= $4.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4145 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(1.1411)
= $3.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.14% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.