Catalent Inc (CTLT)
Catalent, Inc. (Catalent Pharma Solutions) is a multinational corporation headquartered in Somerset, New Jersey. It is a global provider of delivery technologies, development, drug manufacturing, biologics, gene therapies and consumer health products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.32% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $58.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.30% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.5708
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0973
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0973) – 1
= 47.59%
May 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y870)
= Exp(a + b × X870 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5708 + 0.0009 × 1,265 + 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(3.8646)
= $47.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y870)
= Exp(a + b × X870 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5708 + 0.0009 × 1,265 – 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(3.4754)
= $32.31
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5708 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(4.3521)
= $77.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5708 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(3.9628)
= $52.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.32% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $58.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.6045
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0238
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0238) – 1
= 9.97%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6045 + 0.0003 × 1,535 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(4.0644)
= $58.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6045 + 0.0003 × 1,535 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(3.9693)
= $52.95
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6045 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(4.1425)
= $62.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6045 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(4.0475)
= $57.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.30% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.