Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is a portfolio company of Goosehead Financial, LLC providing personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.11% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $117.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.06 (1.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.68% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.98 (11.38%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GSHD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 12, 2022
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 1.7179
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0879
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 91.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0879) – 1
= 42.12%
September 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0018 × 1,027 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(3.7161)
= $41.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0018 × 1,027 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(3.3645)
= $28.92
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0018 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(4.6512)
= $104.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0018 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(4.2997)
= $73.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.11% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $117.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.06 (1.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: October 11, 2024
a = 3.3732
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1307
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1307) – 1
= 68.69%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3732 + 0.0006 × 1,197 + 2 × 0.1307)
= Exp(4.3049)
= $74.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3732 + 0.0006 × 1,197 – 2 × 0.1307)
= Exp(3.7820)
= $43.90
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3732 + 0.0006 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.1307)
= Exp(4.6353)
= $103.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3732 + 0.0006 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.1307)
= Exp(4.1124)
= $61.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.68% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.98 (11.38%).