Stock Price Trends

Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW)

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Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.76% per annum.
  • WTW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $337.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.92% per annum.
  • WTW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WTW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 27, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.3346

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0447

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0447) – 1
= 19.60%

July 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3346 + 0.0008 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.4146)
= $224.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3346 + 0.0008 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.2357)
= $187.86

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3346 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.9156)
= $370.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3346 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.7367)
= $310.03

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.76% per annum.
  • WTW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $337.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.0871

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0230

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0230) – 1
= 9.66%

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,024)
= Exp(a + b × X1,024 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,486 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0871 + 0.0010 × 1,486 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.5584)
= $259.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,024)
= Exp(a + b × X1,024 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,486 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0871 + 0.0010 × 1,486 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.4662)
= $236.56

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0871 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.8835)
= $359.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0871 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.7913)
= $327.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.92% per annum.
  • WTW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.