Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.21% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $63.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.91% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RYAN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 2.2992
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0512
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 82.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0512) – 1
= 22.74%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y598)
= Exp(a + b × X598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2992 + 0.0016 × 867 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(3.8268)
= $45.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y598)
= Exp(a + b × X598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2992 + 0.0016 × 867 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(3.6219)
= $37.41
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2992 + 0.0016 × 1,142 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(4.2788)
= $72.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2992 + 0.0016 × 1,142 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(4.0740)
= $58.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.21% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $63.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 4.8162
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0046
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0046) – 1
= 1.87%
August 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y765)
= Exp(a + b × X765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8162 + -0.0006 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(4.1867)
= $65.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y765)
= Exp(a + b × X765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8162 + -0.0006 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(4.1682)
= $64.60
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8162 + -0.0006 × 1,142 + 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(4.1695)
= $64.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8162 + -0.0006 × 1,142 – 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(4.1510)
= $63.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.91% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.