Stock Price Trends

Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.53% per annum.
  • RYAN price at the close of November 26, 2025 was $58.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (3.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 191.06% per annum.
  • RYAN price at the close of November 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RYAN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 27, 2025
End date: November 5, 2025

a = 6.1279

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0464

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.40%

February 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1279 + -0.0014 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.4072)
= $82.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1279 + -0.0014 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.2216)
= $68.14

November 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1279 + -0.0014 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.0613)
= $58.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1279 + -0.0014 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.8757)
= $48.22

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.53% per annum.
  • RYAN price at the close of November 26, 2025 was $58.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (3.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 16, 2025
End date: November 26, 2025

a = -0.5816

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0244

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 191.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.25%

October 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5816 + 0.0029 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(3.9952)
= $54.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5816 + 0.0029 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(3.8977)
= $49.29

November 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5816 + 0.0029 × 1,588 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.1152)
= $61.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5816 + 0.0029 × 1,588 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.0177)
= $55.57

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 191.06% per annum.
  • RYAN price at the close of November 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.