Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.21% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $63.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.74 (6.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.64% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RYAN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2023
End date: April 17, 2025
a = 3.1148
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0714
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0714) – 1
= 33.07%
March 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y405)
= Exp(a + b × X405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1148 + 0.0009 × 588 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(3.7673)
= $43.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y405)
= Exp(a + b × X405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1148 + 0.0009 × 588 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(3.4816)
= $32.51
April 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1148 + 0.0009 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.4408)
= $84.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1148 + 0.0009 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.1550)
= $63.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.21% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $63.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.74 (6.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: July 11, 2025
a = 4.0574
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.13%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0574 + 0.0001 × 1,107 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.2866)
= $72.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0574 + 0.0001 × 1,107 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.1032)
= $60.54
July 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0574 + 0.0001 × 1,450 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.3292)
= $75.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0574 + 0.0001 × 1,450 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.1458)
= $63.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.64% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.