Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.21% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $51.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.42% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RYAN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 25, 2025
End date: December 26, 2025
a = 5.8021
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0498
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0498) – 1
= 22.04%
February 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8021 + -0.0011 × 1,314 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.3943)
= $80.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8021 + -0.0011 × 1,314 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.1952)
= $66.36
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8021 + -0.0011 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.0456)
= $57.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8021 + -0.0011 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(3.8464)
= $46.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.21% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $51.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2025
End date: December 26, 2025
a = 3.8150
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0391
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.93%
September 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8150 + 0.0001 × 1,503 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.0713)
= $58.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8150 + 0.0001 × 1,503 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.9149)
= $50.14
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8150 + 0.0001 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.0849)
= $59.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8150 + 0.0001 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.9285)
= $50.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.42% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.