Aon PLC (AON)
Aon plc is a multinational professional services firm that sells a range of financial risk-mitigation products, including insurance, pension administration, and health-insurance plans.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.91% per annum.
- AON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $380.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 65.43% per annum.
- AON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.6675
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.38%
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6675 + 0.0018 × 1,644 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.6718)
= $290.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6675 + 0.0018 × 1,644 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.5821)
= $265.64
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6675 + 0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.9995)
= $403.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6675 + 0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.9098)
= $368.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.91% per annum.
- AON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $380.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.4189
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0144
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0144) – 1
= 5.92%
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4189 + 0.0014 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.8046)
= $331.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4189 + 0.0014 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.7471)
= $313.27
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4189 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.9660)
= $389.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4189 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.9084)
= $368.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 65.43% per annum.
- AON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.