Aon PLC (AON)
Aon plc is a multinational professional services firm that sells a range of financial risk-mitigation products, including insurance, pension administration, and health-insurance plans.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.15% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 10, 2025 was $359.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.12% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2021
End date: August 20, 2024
a = 5.5893
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0613
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0613) – 1
= 27.77%
August 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5893 + 0.0001 × 393 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(5.7556)
= $315.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5893 + 0.0001 × 393 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(5.5106)
= $247.29
August 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5893 + 0.0001 × 1,499 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(5.8788)
= $357.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5893 + 0.0001 × 1,499 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(5.6337)
= $279.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.15% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 10, 2025 was $359.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2022
End date: July 10, 2025
a = 5.4316
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0660
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0660) – 1
= 30.20%
April 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y454)
= Exp(a + b × X454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4316 + 0.0003 × 655 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(5.7366)
= $310.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y454)
= Exp(a + b × X454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4316 + 0.0003 × 655 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(5.4726)
= $238.09
July 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4316 + 0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(6.0451)
= $422.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4316 + 0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(5.7812)
= $324.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.12% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.