Stock Price Trends

Aon PLC (AON)

Aon plc is a multinational professional services firm that sells a range of financial risk-mitigation products, including insurance, pension administration, and health-insurance plans.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.40% per annum.
  • AON price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $398.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $50.30 (11.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.63% per annum.
  • AON price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

Primary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: December 6, 2024

a = 3.1794

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0249

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.48%

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1794 + 0.0016 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.6521)
= $284.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1794 + 0.0016 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.5525)
= $257.89

December 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1794 + 0.0016 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(6.0176)
= $410.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1794 + 0.0016 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.9180)
= $371.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.40% per annum.
  • AON price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $398.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $50.30 (11.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 4.6540

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0317

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.54%

July 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6540 + 0.0007 × 1,580 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.8739)
= $355.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6540 + 0.0007 × 1,580 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.7470)
= $313.24

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6540 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(6.0533)
= $425.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6540 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.9263)
= $374.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.63% per annum.
  • AON price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.