Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)
Erie Indemnity Company is an administrative agent for underwriters on the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. The company is headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.42% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $404.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.84% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ERIE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 12, 2022
End date: December 5, 2024
a = 4.2890
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1141
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1141) – 1
= 57.83%
January 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 715 + 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(5.2642)
= $193.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 715 – 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(4.8078)
= $122.46
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(6.3695)
= $583.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(5.9131)
= $369.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.42% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $404.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 29, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 10.1359
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0542
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.21%
August 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1359 + -0.0023 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(6.3884)
= $594.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1359 + -0.0023 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(6.1716)
= $478.94
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1359 + -0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(6.0408)
= $420.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1359 + -0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(5.8240)
= $338.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.84% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.